Climate Change Projection Datasets (GCM, Resolution, Emission Scenarios) #future
Future Climate datasets
Future climate datasets are those which include forecasts about future climate scenarios based on current climate data. There are three types of future global warming scenarios, the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES), Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). Within these, there are a number of different forecasts which relate to future emission scenarios. Note that these alone do not forecast future climate variables such as temperature or rainfall. For more information about these, check out our teaching video.
In addition to the RCPs and SRESs, future climate datasets may include future climate models which incorporate the RCPs or the SRESs and current climate data. These models are known as general circulation models (GCM) and are used to forecast climate variables such as temperature and rainfall. Across the world, there are 27 different research groups, that have constructed one or more general circulation models (GCM).
Example: -
Location, climate projection, emission scenario based on GCM, resolution- year
as,
Australia, Climate Projection, SRESB2 based on GISS-MODELER, 2.5 arcmin (~5km) - 2035
More information about these can be found by following the link in the ‘Info’ button on the Dataset Collection.
Emission Scenarios
SRES | Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES)
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RCPs | Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs)
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SSPs | Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs)
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Abbreviation | Details |
Goddard Institute for Space Studies - ModelE, NASA | |
Institut Pierre Simon Laplace - Coupled Model 4 | |
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Parallel Climate Model | |
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Earth System Model | |
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Some Recommended Datasets have been showcased below:
Australia, Climate Projection, SRESA2 based on NCAR-CCSM30, 2.5 arcmin (~5km) - 2035
South-East Australia Future Climate, (2030), (SRES-A2-RR1) based on CCCMA3.1, 36 arcsec (~1km)
South-East Australia Future Climate, (2070), (SRES-A2-RR2) based on CCCMA3.1, 36 arcsec (~1km)
Australia, Climate Projection, RCP2.6 based on NCAR-PCM1, 2.5 arcmin (~5km) - 2045
Australia, Climate Projection, RCP6.0 based on UKMO-HADGEM1, 2.5 arcmin (~5km) - 2075
Australia, Climate Projection, RCP8.5 based on UKMO-HADGEM1, 2.5 arcmin (~5km) - 2025
There are currently Six future climate databases available in the BCCVL’s Climate Change projection (Secondary Experiment).
Name, Geographic extent and Database | Sample Name and example | Variables/ Layers | Year Range | Domain | |||
Location1, Climate Projection, emission scenario2 based on GCM3, resolution4-year5
Example: Australia1, Climate Projection, SRESB22 based on GISS-MODELER3, 2.5 arcmin (~5km)4 - 20355
| Bioclim 01: Annual mean temperature Bioclim 02: Mean Diurnal Range (Mean of monthly (max temp - min temp)) Bioclim 03: Isothermality (BIO2/BIO7) (* 100) Bioclim 04: Temperature Seasonality (standard deviation *100) Bioclim 05: Max Temperature of Warmest Month Bioclim 06: Min Temperature of Coldest Month Bioclim 07: Temperature Annual Range (BIO5-BIO6) Bioclim 08: Mean Temperature of Wettest Quarter Bioclim 09: Mean Temperature of Driest Quarter Bioclim 10: Mean Temperature of Warmest Quarter Bioclim 11: Mean Temperature of Coldest Quarter Bioclim 12: Annual Precipitation Bioclim 13: Precipitation of Wettest Month Bioclim 14: Precipitation of Driest Month Bioclim 15: Precipitation Seasonality (Coefficient of Variation) Bioclim 16: Precipitation of Wettest Quarter Bioclim 17: Precipitation of Driest Quarter Bioclim 18: Precipitation of Warmest Quarter Bioclim 19: Precipitation of Coldest Quarter | SRESA1FI
RCP4.5 RCP2.6 | 2.5 arcmin (~5km) | 2025 2035 2045 2055 2065 2075 2085 |
Terrestrial | ||
WorldClim 2.1 |
| Bioclim 01: Annual mean temperature Bioclim 02: Mean Diurnal Range (Mean of monthly (max temp - min temp)) Bioclim 03: Isothermality (BIO2/BIO7) (* 100) Bioclim 04: Temperature Seasonality (standard deviation *100) Bioclim 05: Max Temperature of Warmest Month Bioclim 06: Min Temperature of Coldest Month Bioclim 07: Temperature Annual Range (BIO5-BIO6) Bioclim 08: Mean Temperature of Wettest Quarter Bioclim 09: Mean Temperature of Driest Quarter Bioclim 10: Mean Temperature of Warmest Quarter Bioclim 11: Mean Temperature of Coldest Quarter Bioclim 12: Annual Precipitation Bioclim 13: Precipitation of Wettest Month Bioclim 14: Precipitation of Driest Month Bioclim 15: Precipitation Seasonality (Coefficient of Variation) Bioclim 16: Precipitation of Wettest Quarter Bioclim 17: Precipitation of Driest Quarter Bioclim 18: Precipitation of Warmest Quarter Bioclim 19: Precipitation of Coldest Quarter
Monthly Precipitation
Monthly Tmin
Monthly Tmax |
ssp126 ssp245 ssp370 ssp585 |
10 arcmin 5 arcmin 2.5 arcmin 30 arcsec | ACCESS-CM2 ACCESS-ESM1-5 CanESM5 CanESM5-CanOE CNRM-CM6-1 CNRM-CM6-1-HR CNRM-ESM2-1 EC-Earth3-Veg EC-Earth3-Veg-LR FIO-ESM-2-0 GFDL-ESM4 GISS-E2-1-G GISS-E2-1-H HadGEM3-GC31-LL INM-CM4-8 INM-CM5-0 IPSL-CM6A-LR MIROC-ES2L MIROC6 MPI-ESM1-2-HR MPI-ESM1-2-LR MRI-ESM2-0 UKESM1-0-LL |
2021-2040 2041-2060 2061-2080 2081-2100 |
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Climate Future Tasmania
Tasmania | Location1, Future climate(year)2, emission scenario3 based on GCM4, resolution5
Example: | Bioclim 01: Annual mean temperature Bioclim 02: Mean Diurnal Range (Mean of monthly (max temp - min temp)) Bioclim 03: Isothermality (BIO2/BIO7) (* 100) Bioclim 04: Temperature Seasonality (standard deviation *100) Bioclim 05: Max Temperature of Warmest Month Bioclim 06: Min Temperature of Coldest Month Bioclim 07: Temperature Annual Range (BIO5-BIO6) Bioclim 08: Mean Temperature of Wettest Quarter Bioclim 09: Mean Temperature of Driest Quarter Bioclim 10: Mean Temperature of Warmest Quarter Bioclim 11: Mean Temperature of Coldest Quarter Bioclim 12: Annual Precipitation Bioclim 13: Precipitation of Wettest Month Bioclim 14: Precipitation of Driest Month Bioclim 15: Precipitation Seasonality (Coefficient of Variation) Bioclim 16: Precipitation of Wettest Quarter Bioclim 17: Precipitation of Driest Quarter Bioclim 18: Precipitation of Warmest Quarter Bioclim 19: Precipitation of Coldest Quarter | SRES-A2 SRES-B1 | | 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 2070 2075 2080 2085 | | |
Location1, Future climate(year)2, emission scenario3 based on GCM4, resolution5
| Bioclim 01: Annual mean temperature Bioclim 02: Mean Diurnal Range (Mean of monthly (max temp - min temp)) Bioclim 03: Isothermality (BIO2/BIO7) (* 100) Bioclim 04: Temperature Seasonality (standard deviation *100) Bioclim 05: Max Temperature of Warmest Month Bioclim 06: Min Temperature of Coldest Month Bioclim 07: Temperature Annual Range (BIO5-BIO6) Bioclim 08: Mean Temperature of Wettest Quarter Bioclim 09: Mean Temperature of Driest Quarter Bioclim 10: Mean Temperature of Warmest Quarter Bioclim 11: Mean Temperature of Coldest Quarter Bioclim 12: Annual Precipitation Bioclim 13: Precipitation of Wettest Month Bioclim 14: Precipitation of Driest Month Bioclim 15: Precipitation Seasonality (Coefficient of Variation) Bioclim 16: Precipitation of Wettest Quarter Bioclim 17: Precipitation of Driest Quarter Bioclim 18: Precipitation of Warmest Quarter Bioclim 19: Precipitation of Coldest Quarter Bioclim 20: Annual mean radiation Bioclim 21: Highest weekly radiation Bioclim 22: Lowest weekly radiation Bioclim 23: Radiation seasonality Bioclim 24: Radiation of wettest quarter Bioclim 25: Radiation of driest quarter Bioclim 26: Radiation of warmest quarter Bioclim 27: Radiation of coldest quarter Bioclim 28: Annual mean moisture index Bioclim 29: Highest weekly moisture index Bioclim 30: Lowest weekly moisture index Bioclim 31: Moisture index seasonality Bioclim 32: Mean moisture index of wettest quarter Bioclim 33: Mean moisture index of driest quarter Bioclim 34: Mean moisture index of warmest quarter Bioclim 35: Mean moisture index of coldest quarter | |
| 2070 | | ||
CHELSA, Future climate(year)1, based on GCM2, emission scenario3 | Bioclim 01: Annual mean temperature Bioclim 02: Mean Diurnal Range (Mean of monthly (max temp - min temp)) Bioclim 03: Isothermality (BIO2/BIO7) (* 100) Bioclim 04: Temperature Seasonality (standard deviation *100) Bioclim 05: Max Temperature of Warmest Month Bioclim 06: Min Temperature of Coldest Month Bioclim 07: Temperature Annual Range (BIO5-BIO6) Bioclim 08: Mean Temperature of Wettest Quarter Bioclim 09: Mean Temperature of Driest Quarter Bioclim 10: Mean Temperature of Warmest Quarter Bioclim 11: Mean Temperature of Coldest Quarter Bioclim 12: Annual Precipitation Bioclim 13: Precipitation of Wettest Month Bioclim 14: Precipitation of Driest Month Bioclim 15: Precipitation Seasonality (Coefficient of Variation) Bioclim 16: Precipitation of Wettest Quarter Bioclim 17: Precipitation of Driest Quarter Bioclim 18: Precipitation of Warmest Quarter Bioclim 19: Precipitation of Coldest Quarter first day of the growing season TREELIM First growing degree day above 0°C First growing degree day above 10°C First growing degree day above 5°C Frost Change Frequency Number of growing degree days above 0°C Number of growing degree days above 10°C Number of growing degree days above 5°C Growing degree days heat sum above 0°C Growing degree days heat sum above 10°C Growing degree days heat sum above 5°C Growing season length TREELIM Köppen-Geiger climate classification (Köppen-Geiger) Köppen-Geiger climate classification (Köppen-Geiger without As/Aw differentiation) Köppen-Geiger climate classification (Köppen Geiger after Peel et al. 2007) Köppen-Geiger climate classification (Thornthwaite 1931) Köppen-Geiger climate classification (Troll-Pfaffen) last day of the growing season TREELIM Last growing degree day above 0°C Last growing degree day above 10°C Last growing degree day above 5°C Mean temperature of the growing season TREELIM Net primary productivity Snow cover days Snow water equivalent Accumulated precipitation amount on days above [threshold_temperature]
To be updated:
Maximum monthly potential evapotranspiration Mean monthly potential evapotranspiration Minimum monthly potential evapotranspiration Annual range of monthly potential evapotranspiration Monthly potential evapotranspiration Monthly precipitation amount Maximum monthly surface downwelling shortwave flux in air Mean monthly surface downwelling shortwave flux in air Miniumum monthly surface downwelling shortwave flux in air Annual range of monthly surface downwelling shortwave flux in air Maximum monthly near-surface wind speed Mean monthly near-surface wind speed Minimum monthly near-surface wind speed Annual range monthly near-surface wind speed monthly near-surface wind speed Mean daily maximum 2m air temperature Mean daily air temperature Mean daily minimum air temperature Maximum monthly total cloud cover Minimum monthly total cloud cover Annual range of monthly total cloud cover Monthly total cloud cover Maximum monthly vapor pressure deficit Mean monthly vapor pressure deficit Minimum monthly vapor pressure deficit Annual range of monthly vapor pressure deficit monthly vapor pressure deficit [climate moisture index] [near-surface relative humidity] | ssp370 ssp585 | | 2041-2070 2071-2100
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CliMond, Future climate(year), emissionscenariobased on GCM, resolution
| Bioclim 01: Annual mean temperature Bioclim 02: Mean Diurnal Range (Mean of monthly (max temp - min temp)) Bioclim 03: Isothermality (BIO2/BIO7) (* 100) Bioclim 04: Temperature Seasonality (standard deviation *100) Bioclim 05: Max Temperature of Warmest Month Bioclim 06: Min Temperature of Coldest Month Bioclim 07: Temperature Annual Range (BIO5-BIO6) Bioclim 08: Mean Temperature of Wettest Quarter Bioclim 09: Mean Temperature of Driest Quarter Bioclim 10: Mean Temperature of Warmest Quarter Bioclim 11: Mean Temperature of Coldest Quarter Bioclim 12: Annual Precipitation Bioclim 13: Precipitation of Wettest Month Bioclim 14: Precipitation of Driest Month Bioclim 15: Precipitation Seasonality (Coefficient of Variation) Bioclim 16: Precipitation of Wettest Quarter Bioclim 17: Precipitation of Driest Quarter Bioclim 18: Precipitation of Warmest Quarter Bioclim 19: Precipitation of Coldest Quarter Bioclim 20: Annual mean radiation Bioclim 21: Highest weekly radiation Bioclim 22: Lowest weekly radiation Bioclim 23: Radiation seasonality Bioclim 24: Radiation of wettest quarter Bioclim 25: Radiation of driest quarter Bioclim 26: Radiation of warmest quarter Bioclim 27: Radiation of coldest quarter Bioclim 28: Annual mean moisture index Bioclim 29: Highest weekly moisture index Bioclim 30: Lowest weekly moisture index Bioclim 31: Moisture index seasonality Bioclim 32: Mean moisture index of wettest quarter Bioclim 33: Mean moisture index of driest quarter Bioclim 34: Mean moisture index of warmest quarter Bioclim 35: Mean moisture index of coldest quarter | SRES-A1B SRES-A2 |
30 arcsec (~1km)
10 arcmin (~20km) | 2100
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Bio-ORACLE | BioOracle Future climate(year)1, emission scenario2,Type, resolution3
| Surface Long term average of maximum currents velocity Long term average of minimum currents velocity Maximum Currents Velocity Mean Currents Velocity Minimum Currents Velocity Range of Currents Velocity Long term average of maximum Ice Thickness Long term average of minimum Ice Thickness Maximum Ice Thickness Mean Ice Thickness Minimum Ice Thickness Range of Ice Thickness Maximum Water Salinity of Saltiest Month Minimum Water Salinity of Freshest Month Maximum Water Salinity Mean Water Salinity Minimum Water Salinity Range of Water Salinity Maximum Water Temperature of Warmest Month Minimum Water Temperature of Coldest Month Maximum Water Temperature Mean Water Temperature Minimum Water Temperature Range of Water Temperature
Benthic (Min, Max & Mean) Depth Mean Nitrate Concentration Minimum Nitrate Concentration Range of Nitrate Concentration Long term average of maximum chlorophyll A concentration Long term average of minimum chlorophyll A concentration Maximum Chlorophyll A Concentration Mean Chlorophyll A Concentration Minimum Chlorophyll A Concentration Range of Chlorophyll A Concentration Long term average of maximum currents velocity Long term average of minimum currents velocity Maximum Currents Velocity Mean Currents Velocity Minimum Currents Velocity Range of Currents Velocity Long term average of maximum oxygen concentration Long term average of minimum oxygen concentration Maximum Oxygen Concentration Mean Oxygen Concentration Minimum Oxygen Concentration Range of Oxygen Concentration Long term average of maximum iron concentration Long term average of minimum iron concentration Max Iron Concentration Mean Iron Concentration Minimum Iron Concentration Range of Iron Concentration Average of the maximum light at the bottom Average of the minimum light at the bottom Maximum amount of light at the bottom Mean amount of light at the bottom Minimum amount of light at the bottom Range of light at the bottom Long term average of maximum nitrate concentration Long term average of minimum nitrate concentration Maximum Nitrate Concentration Long term average of maximum phosphate concentration Long term average of minimum phosphate concentration Maximum Phosphate Concentration Mean Phosphate Concentration Minimum Phosphate Concentration Range of Phosphate Concentration Long term average of maximum phytoplankton concentration Long term average of minimum phytoplankton concentration Maximum Phytoplankton Concentration Mean Phytoplankton Concentration Minimum Phytoplankton Concentration Range of Phytoplankton Concentration Long term average of maximum primary productivity Long term average of minimum primary productivity Maximum Primary Productivity Mean Primary Productivity Minimum Primary Productivity Range of Primary Productivity Maximum Water Salinity of Saltiest Month Minimum Water Salinity of Freshest Month Maximum Water Salinity Mean Water Salinity Minimum Water Salinity Range of Water Salinity Long term average of maximum silicate concentration Long term average of minimum silicate concentration Maximum Silicate Concentration Mean Silicate Concentration Minimum Silicate Concentration Range of Silicate Concentration Maximum Water Temperature of Warmest Month Minimum Water Temperature of Coldest Month Maximum Water Temperature Mean Water Temperature Minimum Water Temperature Range of Water Temperature
| RCP85 RCP26 RCP45 | | | 2040-2050 2090-2100 | |