Climate Change Projection Datasets (GCM, Resolution, Emission Scenarios) #future
Future Climate datasets
Future climate datasets are those which include forecasts about future climate scenarios based on current climate data. There are three types of future global warming scenarios, the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES), Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). Within these, there are a number of different forecasts which relate to future emission scenarios. Note that these alone do not forecast future climate variables such as temperature or rainfall. For more information about these, check out our teaching video.
In addition to the RCPs and SRESs, future climate datasets may include future climate models which incorporate the RCPs or the SRESs and current climate data. These models are known as general circulation models (GCM) and are used to forecast climate variables such as temperature and rainfall. Across the world, there are 27 different research groups, that have constructed one or more general circulation models (GCM).
Example: -
Location, climate projection, emission scenario based on GCM, resolution- year
as,
Australia, Climate Projection, SRESB2 based on GISS-MODELER, 2.5 arcmin (~5km) - 2035
More information about these can be found by following the link in the ‘Info’ button on the Dataset Collection.
Emission Scenarios
SRES | Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES)
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RCPs | Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs)
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SSPs | Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs)
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Abbreviation | Details |
Goddard Institute for Space Studies - ModelE, NASA | |
Institut Pierre Simon Laplace - Coupled Model 4 | |
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Parallel Climate Model | |
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Earth System Model | |
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Some Recommended Datasets have been showcased below:
Australia, Climate Projection, SRESA2 based on NCAR-CCSM30, 2.5 arcmin (~5km) - 2035
South-East Australia Future Climate, (2030), (SRES-A2-RR1) based on CCCMA3.1, 36 arcsec (~1km)
South-East Australia Future Climate, (2070), (SRES-A2-RR2) based on CCCMA3.1, 36 arcsec (~1km)
Australia, Climate Projection, RCP2.6 based on NCAR-PCM1, 2.5 arcmin (~5km) - 2045
Australia, Climate Projection, RCP6.0 based on UKMO-HADGEM1, 2.5 arcmin (~5km) - 2075
Australia, Climate Projection, RCP8.5 based on UKMO-HADGEM1, 2.5 arcmin (~5km) - 2025
There are currently Six future climate databases available in the BCCVL’s Climate Change projection (Secondary Experiment).
Name, Geographic extent and Database | Sample Name and example | Variables/ Layers | Year Range | Domain | |||
Location1, Climate Projection, emission scenario2 based on GCM3, resolution4-year5
Example: Australia1, Climate Projection, SRESB22 based on GISS-MODELER3, 2.5 arcmin (~5km)4 - 20355
| Bioclim 01: Annual mean temperature Bioclim 02: Mean Diurnal Range (Mean of monthly (max temp - min temp)) Bioclim 03: Isothermality (BIO2/BIO7) (* 100) Bioclim 04: Temperature Seasonality (standard deviation *100) Bioclim 05: Max Temperature of Warmest Month Bioclim 06: Min Temperature of Coldest Month Bioclim 07: Temperature Annual Range (BIO5-BIO6) Bioclim 08: Mean Temperature of Wettest Quarter Bioclim 09: Mean Temperature of Driest Quarter Bioclim 10: Mean Temperature of Warmest Quarter Bioclim 11: Mean Temperature of Coldest Quarter Bioclim 12: Annual Precipitation Bioclim 13: Precipitation of Wettest Month Bioclim 14: Precipitation of Driest Month Bioclim 15: Precipitation Seasonality (Coefficient of Variation) Bioclim 16: Precipitation of Wettest Quarter Bioclim 17: Precipitation of Driest Quarter Bioclim 18: Precipitation of Warmest Quarter Bioclim 19: Precipitation of Coldest Quarter |